*US Edition*
GET IN THE GAME - with NIGEL RIDGWAY of bet365
The race for the Super Bowl is now down to just four survivors and, after last weekend’s results, the traveling teams will be fancying their chances of going all the way to Houston on February 1st. All four road underdogs covered the handicap and history shows that the Conference Championships are the round where home advantage makes the least difference. In fact over the last six seasons the road teams have the edge by 7-5, while over the last ten years only 60% of home teams have prevailed compared to 80% in the Divisional rounds.
Outright betting has champions of two years ago New England as solid 5/4 favourites, followed by Philadelphia at 5/2. The Eagles were also second favourites for the Super Bowl at this stage last season before succumbing at home to eventual winners Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers were 4/1 third favourites with two games to play, a position occupied this time by Indianapolis at 7/2, after winning their shooting match against Kansas last week. Carolina may be the 11/2 outsiders, but certainly won’t fear the Eagles after beating St Louis in a game they should have wrapped up much earlier.
For a pointer to this weekend’s games we have to look back to Week 13 of the regular season, where both New England and Philadelphia won away to their forthcoming opponents – Indianapolis and Carolina – but not so convincingly that you can discount either of this week’s travelers out of hand. Indy in particular may even hold a psychological advantage over the Patriots after their running back Edgerrin James was tackled on the brink of reaching the end zone as time ran out, handing victory to the Patriots at 38-34. Down by 31-10 at one stage, the Colts rallied after four touchdown passes by Peyton Manning, eventually going down to a 67 yard big kick return by Patriots rookie Bethel Johnson. Carolina’s 25-16 loss at home to the Eagles could easily be attributed to an off-day for their kicker John Kasay, after missing three field goals and one extra point, the difference between the two teams.
IND Colts (+3.00) @ NE Patriots (-3.0)
Su Jan 18 3:05 pm EST (CBS)
18/01/2004 20:00 GMT
With snow forecast, weather conditions are expected to be very cold at Foxboro, so the Colts will have to battle the elements as well as the No.1 ranked Patriots. Anyone thinking of backing the Colts this week will have noted with alarm that their coverage teams do not seem to have improved since Week 13, with Kansas City star Dante Hall bringing a kick-off all the way back for a touchdown against them on Sunday. It will be intriguing to see if Peyton Manning can continue his Quarterback master class for the third week running against the solid New England defense, or whether Bill Belicheck can come up with another master plan to keep him in check? The Patriots to triumph in a low scoring affair, possibly in overtime!
CAR Panthers (+4.0) @ PHL Eagles (-4.0)
Su Jan 18 6:48 pm EST (FOX)
18/01/2004 23:45 GMT
Carolina is the surprise package of the season, and has nothing to lose against Philadelphia, let off the hook by the Packers last weekend after looking dead and buried. In their last encounter Carolina running back Stephen Davis enjoyed success on the ground, running for 115 yards and there is no sign that the Eagles have fixed their run defense, with Ahman Green grabbing 156 yards against them on Sunday. After Donavan McNabb’s virtuoso performance last week, Carolina will again rely on their running game to control the clock and keep him off the field. The Panthers can continue to rise to the occasion with another Ricky Manning inspired success!
Bet365’s NFL Conference Finals Lines:
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Game/Point Spread/Game Totals/Money Line
IND Colts +3.0 10/11 O 43.0 10/11 7/5
NE Patriots -3.0 10/11 U 43.0 10/11 5/8
CAR Panthers +4.0 10/11 O 36.0 10/11 17/10
PHL Eagles -4.0 10/11 U 36.0 10/11 1/2
Bet the Conference games In-Running, as the action unfolds including: Game Handicap/Moneyline, Game Total, Next Scoring Play Will Be, and Team to Score Next.
Have a great weekend, and be lucky!
Nigel.
